Louisville vs Arkansas State 10/2/2010

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Louisville winning 52% of simulations, and Arkansas State 48% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Louisville commits fewer turnovers in 37% of simulations and they go on to win 65% when they take care of the ball. Arkansas State wins 61% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Bilal Powell is averaging 127 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (40% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. Jermaine Robertson is averaging 43 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (24% chance) then he helps his team win 65%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ARKST +4.5 --- Over/Under line is 60.5

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